VALIDASI MODEL GAIL BREAST CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT TERHADAP KEJADIAN KANKER PAYUDARA DI RS WAHIDIN SUDIROHUSODO = Relationship Between Preoperative and Postoperative Trombocytosis and Survival Rate in Colorectal Cancer Patients

Abstract
Background: Breast cancer (BC) early detection through screening modalities such as mammography and clinical exams is crucial for improving outcomes. The Gail model predicts BC risk but may not be suitable for all populations, including Indonesians, due to different risk factors. This study aimed to validate the Gail model in Indonesia and create a tailored screening tool for better early detection and reduced BC incidence and mortality.
Methods: This retrospective cohort study enrolled female patients aged 35–85 years who were diagnosed with BC between July and December 2023. Variables included age, age at first childbirth, age at menarche, family history, and biopsy history. Patients were classified as low-risk (≤1.7%) or high-risk (>1.7%). Data were analyzed using the Chi-squared test, Fisher’s exact test, and the area under the curve (AUC).
Results: This study enrolled 70 female BC patients. Risk assessments indicated that 57.1% of patients were low-risk and 42.9% were high-risk for BC. Common factors included a history of biopsies (27.1%) and the absence of genetic mutations (71.4%). Significant relationships were found between cancer risk and age (p = 0.015), genetic mutations (p = 0.003), family history (p = 0.016), and biopsy history (p = 0.001). The Gail model showed 100% sensitivity and specificity, with the Hosmer–Lemeshow test confirming its goodness of fit (p = 0.787), indicating its effectiveness in predicting BC risk.
Conclusion: The Gail model effectively predicts BC risk in female patients, demonstrating 100% sensitivity and specificity, with significant associations identified for age, genetic mutations, family history, and biopsy history.