ANALISIS PENGGUNAAN ATURAN STURGES DAN ALGORITMA REA PADA PERBANDINGAN FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN-MARKOV CHAIN DAN CHENG-MARKOV CHAIN UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KELEMBAPAN UDARA (Studi Kasus: Data Kelembapan Udara di Stasiun BMKG Kota Makassar) = ANALYSIS OF THE USE OF STURGES RULES AND REA ALGORITHMS ON A COMPARISON OF FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN-MARKOV CHAIN AND CHENG-MARKOV CHAIN TO PREDICT AIR HUMIDITY (Case Study: Air Humidity Data at BMKG Station in Makassar City)

ABSTRAK

Kelembapan udara pada dasarnya adalah ukuran kadar uap air yang berada dalam bentuk gas di udara dan menjadi factor terjadinya hujan, semakin besar kelembapan udara maka besar kemungkinan. Berbagai metode perkiraan telah berkembang seiring dengan adanya permasalahan yang timbul. Metode tersebut antara lain Fuzzy Time Series Chen-Markov Chain dan Cheng-Markov Chain. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memperoleh perbandingan tingkat keakuratan hasil perkiraan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen-Markov Chain dan Cheng-Markov Chain. Tingkat akurasi diukur berdasarkan persentase nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Sedangkan parameter yang digunakan adalah data kelembapan udara di Kota Makassar. Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan masing-masing nilai MAPE untuk setiap metode yaitu, Chen-Markov Chain Algoritma REA sebesar 3,789%, Cheng-Markov Chain Algoritma REA sebesar 3,74%, Chen-Markov Chain aturan sturges sebesar 1,423%, Cheng-Markov Chain aturan sturges 4,43%. Sedangkan Perkiraan untuk periode berikutnya tanpa data aktual diperoleh MAPE Chen-Markov Chain Algoritma REAsebesar 3,960%, Cheng-Markov Chain Algoritma REA sebesar 2,243%, Chen-Markov Chain aturan sturges sebesar 1,219%, Cheng-Markov Chain aturan sturges 5,908%. Nilai MAPE pada penelitian ini kurang dari 10% artinya Metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen-Markov Chain dan Cheng-Markov Chain dengan menggunakan aturan sturges maupun Algoritma REA memiliki kinerja yang sangat baik.

ABSTRACT

Air humidity is basically a measure of the moisture content that is in the form of gases in the air and becomes a factor in the occurrence of rain, the greater the humidity of the air, the more likely it is. Various methods of forecasting have developed along with the problems that arise. These methods include Fuzzy Time Series Chen-Markov Chain and Cheng-Markov Chain. The purpose of the study was to obtain a comparison of the accuracy of the approximate results using the Fuzzy Time Series Chen-Markov Chain and Cheng-Markov Chain methods. The accuracy rate is measured based on the percentage of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. While the parameters used are air humidity data in Makassar City. The results of this study stated each MAPE value for each method, namely, Chen-Markov Chain with REA Algorithm of 3.789%, Cheng-Markov Chain with REA Algorithm by 3.74%, Chen-Markov Chain sturges rule by 1.423%, Cheng-Markov Chain rule of sturges by 4.43%. While the estimate for the next period without actual data obtained MAPE Chen-Markov Chain without sturges rule by 3.960%, Cheng-Markov Chain with REA Algorithm by 2.243%, Chen-Markov Chain sturges rule by 1.219%, Cheng-Markov Chain sturges rule 5.908%. Mape values in this study were less than 10% meaning that the Fuzzy Time Series Chen-Markov Chain and Cheng-Markov Chain Methods with and without sturges rules performed very well.
Keywords : Fuzzy Time Series,aturan sturges, Algoritma REA, Chen-Markov Chain, Cheng-Markov Chain Fuzzy Time Series, sturges Rule, REA Algorithm, Chen-Markov Chain, Cheng-Markov Chain.