Analysis of trends and driving factors for plantation crop production

In this paper, we present a comparison of linear, quadratic, and exponential trend model to forecasting agricultural produc tion 15 years later. In addition, this paper also analyses whether the land area factor or land productivity factor affects changes in the amount of agricultural production. The analysis shows that the quadratic model is more applicable to predict production trends than the linear and exponential trend models. The increase in yield per unit area as the dominant factor driving the pro duction of several crops indicates the intensification program is running well in the research area. The increase in land area as the dominant factor affecting the production of several crops indicates that the extensification program is easy to implement due to the availability of agricultural land in agricultural locations.