KETERSEDIAAN AIR TAHUN 2020 DAN TAHUN 2031 BERDASARKAN PENUTUPAN LAHAN DI DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI BALEASE KABUPATEN LUWU UTARA = Water Availability In 2020 And 2031 Based On Land Cover In Balease Watershed Of North Luwu Regency

Land cover is one of the factors that affect the function of watersheds in the watershed (DAS). Based on data from the director general of environmental planning and planning in 2014-2016 the Balease watershed experienced changes in land cover. These changes have an impact on increasing the potential for flooding in the rainy season and reducing water in the dry season, so that the availability of water is also affected. This study was conducted to determine changes in land cover in 2020 and 2031 and their impact on the amount of water available in the Balease watershed. This study uses the Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) simulation to project land cover changes in 2031 and the Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) model in simulating hydrological conditions with input data in the form of land cover in 2009, 2015, 2020, road network, soil type, Digital Elevation Model and daily climate. The results showed that the 2020 land cover projected in 2031 experienced the highest increase in the dry mixed bushland agricultural class of 3,494.80 ha while the highest reduction in the shrub class of 5,952.02 ha Changes in land cover affect the amount of water availability which is based on land cover. In 2020 it was 3,422,866,827.83 m3/year and in 2031 it was 3,423,226,974.61 m3/year, there was an increase in 2031 caused by changes in the amount of lethal flow, groundwater flow and surface flow.
Keywords : Balese Watershed; Land Cover change, SWAT, Water Availability; CA-ANN